Daily Mortgage Rate Update — October 13, 2026
Note: Monday (Oct. 12) was Columbus Day and the bond market was closed, so the latest official Mortgage News Daily (MND) reading is from Friday, Oct. 9. "Today" in the tables below means that latest reading.
1. Key Numbers at a Glance
| Item | Level | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| 30-yr fixed (MND, Oct. 9) | 7.48% | Down 0.02% from the day before; lowest since Sept. 25 |
| 30-yr fixed (Freddie Mac, week of Oct. 8) | 7.40% | Up 0.12% from 7.28% the prior week |
| 30-yr fixed (MBA, week ending Oct. 2) | 7.49% | Seventh straight weekly rise; highest since Nov. 2023 |
| 10-year Treasury yield | about 5.24% | The single best guide to where mortgage rates head |
| Fed funds range (rate the Fed sets for bank-to-bank loans) | 3.75%-4.00% | Raised 0.25% on Sept. 16 |
| Next Fed meeting (FOMC) | Oct. 27-28 | Decision Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2:00 p.m. ET |
Quick definitions. A 30-year fixed mortgage keeps the same interest rate for all 30 years. The 10-year Treasury yield is the yearly return investors earn for lending to the U.S. government for 10 years. Mortgage rates tend to move in the same direction.
2. Rate Comparison: Three Sources Side by Side
| Product | Today (MND, Oct. 9) | Freddie Mac (week of Oct. 8) | MBA (week ending Oct. 2) | Prior day (MND) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-yr fixed | 7.48% | 7.40% | 7.49% (conforming) | 7.50% | -0.02% |
| 15-yr fixed | 7.15% | 6.73% | 6.71% | 7.17% | -0.02% |
| ARM (adjustable rate) | 6.90% (7/6 SOFR ARM) | n/a | 6.43% (5/1 ARM) | 6.95% | -0.05% |
Why do the sources differ? MND builds a daily index from the price sheets of large lenders, so it moves first. Freddie Mac publishes every Thursday and averages applications from earlier in the week, so it lags by a few days. The MBA averages a week of loan applications for borrowers putting 20% down. This week Freddie Mac (7.40%) sits 0.08% below MND (7.48%) because the weekly average is still catching up to the daily climb and the pullback. The rate you are actually quoted depends on your credit score, down payment, and whether you pay points.
3. 30-Year Fixed Rate Trend (Last 14 Trading Days)
Source: Mortgage News Daily daily index, Sept. 22 to Oct. 9 (MND publishes 20 trading days of history, back to Sept. 14).
The line starts at 7.17% on Sept. 22, climbs to 7.60% on Sept. 30 and 7.61% on Oct. 5, then eases to 7.48% by Oct. 9. That is a jump of more than 0.4% in about two weeks, and about 0.7% above where rates stood at the end of August (roughly 6.75%). MND called the recent dip "the strongest counterattack" since then, but one down week is not a trend.
4. Rates by Loan Type (MND, Oct. 9)
| Loan type | Rate | Change | Who it tends to fit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-yr fixed (conforming) | 7.48% | -0.02% | Most buyers planning to stay put |
| 30-yr jumbo | 7.63% | -0.02% | Loans above the $832,750 conforming limit |
| 30-yr FHA | 7.15% | -0.02% | Smaller down payment or lower credit score |
| 30-yr VA | 7.17% | -0.01% | Veterans, service members, and families |
| 15-yr fixed | 7.15% | -0.02% | Buyers who can afford a higher payment and want to save interest |
| 7/6 SOFR ARM | 6.90% | -0.05% | Buyers sure they will sell or refinance within 5-7 years |
Why do loan types differ? FHA and VA loans are partly guaranteed by the government. If a borrower stops paying, investors lose less, so the rate is lower. But FHA loans carry extra mortgage insurance, so compare the APR (the yearly cost that folds in fees), not just the rate. Jumbo loans are too large for the government-backed system, so lenders price them separately, and the rate is usually higher. A 15-year loan has a lower rate because the lender gets its money back faster (about 0.67% lower at Freddie Mac), but the monthly payment is much bigger.
15-year vs. 30-year. On a $400,000 loan, the 15-year (7.15%) costs $3,629 a month, versus $2,791 for the 30-year (7.48%). That is about $838 more per month, but total interest is about $253,209 instead of about $604,898. Choose the 15-year only if the payment fits comfortably. Otherwise, take the 30-year and prepay when you can.
5. Why Rates Moved
(1) The immediate cause. On Friday the bond market started weak, which usually pushes rates up, but it turned around near 11 a.m. and several lenders lowered prices in the afternoon. That extended Thursday's drop from 7.59% to 7.50%. The 10-year Treasury yield barely changed, ending near 5.24% (up 0.012 for the day).
(2) The deeper cause: inflation and the Fed. Inflation means prices rise and your dollar buys less. In August, consumer prices rose 3.4% from a year earlier and 0.4% from July, with gasoline up 3.9% in a month. "Core" inflation, which leaves out food and energy, ran 2.4% for the year. Oil near $93 a barrel, tied to the conflict involving Iran, adds to the pressure. On Sept. 16 the Federal Reserve, the country's central bank, raised its rate by 0.25% to 3.75%-4.00% on a 12-0 vote, and said inflation "remains elevated." You might expect mortgage rates to jump the moment the Fed hikes, but markets usually price in a hike ahead of time.
(3) The chain from Treasuries to your mortgage. Lenders sell home loans in big bundles called mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Investors compare those bundles to safe U.S. Treasury bonds. When Treasury yields (the earnings rate investors demand) rise, bundles of home loans must pay more to attract buyers, and that higher return becomes the base for your mortgage rate. Bankrate reports the 10-year yield rose from 4.66% to above 5.3% in six weeks, the highest since April 2002, and mortgage rates followed. The MBA adds that the gap between Treasury yields and mortgage rates has also widened during this volatile stretch, which pushed mortgage rates up even more.
(4) What 0.25% means for a payment. (Freddie Mac's 52-week range is 5.98% to 7.40%, so this week sits at the top.) On a $500,000 30-year loan at 7.48%, principal and interest is $3,489 a month. If the rate rose to 7.73%, it would be $3,575, about $86 more a month. If it fell to 7.23%, it would be $3,404, about $85 less. Over 30 years that is roughly $30,000.
6. Today's Key News
- Mortgage rates at a near-three-year high. The MBA reported its 30-year conforming rate rose to 7.49%, the seventh straight weekly increase and the highest since November 2023. Bankrate's own survey showed 7.53% on Oct. 7, up from 6.78% four weeks earlier. Buyers are pulling back as monthly costs jump. Sources: MBA, Bankrate.
- The 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5% and stayed high. It first topped 5% on Sept. 14, the first time since October 2023, and has traded around 5.2% to 5.3% since. The Treasury has expanded its bond buyback operations to keep the market functioning, but that is not a ceiling on yields. Sources: WRE News, Bankrate.
- The Fed raised rates 0.25% in September. The vote was 12-0 and the new range is 3.75%-4.00%. Minutes from July show three officials already favored a hike. The next meeting is Oct. 27-28. Sources: Federal Reserve, WRE News.
- Builder confidence slid. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell 3 points to 32 in September, the lowest since September 2025. Thirty-eight percent of builders cut prices (average cut 6%) and 66% offered incentives. Source: NAHB.
- Loan applications dropped. The MBA says total applications fell 4.2% in the week ending Oct. 2, with purchase applications down 2% and refinance applications down 8%. Refinancing (replacing an existing loan with a new one) is down 56% from a year ago. Source: MBA.
- Big data week. Today brings existing-home sales and a small-business survey. Wednesday brings September inflation (CPI) at 8:30 a.m. ET plus the Fed's Beige Book; Thursday brings retail sales and wholesale prices. Several regional Fed presidents also speak. Source: The Mortgage Reports.
7. This Week in the Mortgage Industry (MBA Applications Survey)
| Measure (weekly) | Week ending Oct. 2 (released Oct. 7) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Total applications (seasonally adjusted) | -4.2% | After a 6% drop the prior week |
| Purchase index | -2% (15% below a year ago) | FHA purchase applications fell most, 6% |
| Refinance index | -8% (56% below a year ago) | Lowest since 2025 |
| Refinance share of applications | 37.0% (from 38.3%) | |
| ARM share | 10.3% (from 10.3%) | Unchanged |
| FHA / VA / USDA share | 16.4% / 11.8% / 0.5% | FHA was 16.7%, VA 11.9% |
| 30-yr conforming rate | 7.49% (from 7.30%) | 0.84 points |
| 30-yr jumbo / FHA | 7.39% / 7.14% | 0.52 / 1.36 points |
| 15-yr fixed / 5/1 ARM | 6.71% / 6.43% | 1.05 / 1.69 points |
MBA economist Joel Kan said rates reached their highest in nearly three years as Treasury yields rose and the gap to mortgage rates widened. He noted that very few homeowners have a reason to refinance at these rates. Two ideas help explain the numbers. First is the lock-in effect: homeowners who locked in 3% to 4% rates years ago do not want to sell and take a 7% loan, so fewer homes come to market, prices stay firm, and buyers face high rates and high prices at once. Second, refinance demand is near a floor, meaning lenders have less business and may compete harder for purchase buyers. The next MBA survey comes out Wednesday, Oct. 14, at 7:00 a.m. ET.
8. Expert Outlook
- Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research (updated Sept. 11): sees the 30-year fixed around 6.7% to 6.8% through the second quarter of 2027.
- MBA (updated Sept. 16): also projects roughly 6.7% to 6.8% through Q2 2027. Both forecasts were written before this month's jump, so they may be revised up.
- Ralph DiBugnara, Home Qualified: says Fed rate cuts "may be in jeopardy" and that a clear cooling signal from the Fed is needed. He expects the 30-year near 6.25% and the 15-year near 5.875%.
- James Sahnger, C2 Financial, via Bankrate: says good inflation data or weak jobs reports would normally bring relief, but "too many crosscurrents" are weighing on markets. Housing economists do not see rates falling below 6% soon, and a return below 7% looks unlikely in the near term.
9. Rate Scenarios (Illustrations, Not Predictions)
| Scenario | Trigger | Rough 30-yr range (MND) | What it means for buyers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lower | Inflation reports come in cooler; oil settles; Fed signals a pause | About 7.0%-7.3% | About $150-$250 less per month on $500k; refinance talk starts |
| Steady | Data in line with forecasts; Fed holds in October | About 7.3%-7.6% | Similar to today; lock timing matters most |
| Higher | Hot CPI; oil spikes; more Fed hikes priced in | About 7.6%-8.0% | Bigger payments, smaller budgets; revisit ARMs and points |
These ranges are only a way to picture the possibilities. Rates can move 0.1% or more in a single day and can break out of any range.
10. What Could Move Rates Next: Economic Calendar
| Date | Release / event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Tue, Oct. 13 | Existing-home sales, NFIB small-business survey, regional Fed speeches | Housing demand and the tone of Fed officials |
| Wed, Oct. 14 | September CPI (8:30 a.m. ET); MBA applications (7:00 a.m.); Beige Book (2:00 p.m.) | The biggest event this week; a high reading pushes rates up |
| Thu, Oct. 15 | PPI (wholesale prices); retail sales | Price pressure at the business level and consumer strength |
| Oct. 27-28 | FOMC meeting (decision Oct. 28, 2:00 p.m. ET) | Another hike, or a hold? |
| Thu, Oct. 29 | Q3 GDP (advance); September PCE | The Fed's favorite inflation gauge and the pace of growth |
| Fri, Nov. 6 | October jobs report | A very strong job market can push rates higher |
| Tue, Nov. 10 | October CPI | Last big inflation read before the December meeting |
| Dec. 8-9 | FOMC meeting plus new projections | Final Fed meeting of 2026 |
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks how much the cost of everyday goods and services has risen. A higher-than-expected number suggests the Fed may need to keep raising its rate, which tends to lift Treasury yields and mortgage rates. This calendar was verified in mid-September, so confirm dates at the Fed, BLS, and BEA websites.
11. What This Means for Buyers, Sellers, and Homeowners
Buyers
- Lock timing: Once you have a signed contract, lock quickly. Big releases like Wednesday's CPI can move rates sharply. Compare 30-, 45-, and 60-day lock costs.
- Float-down option: Ask whether you can re-lock at a lower rate if rates fall after you lock.
- Points: Paying points up front lowers your rate. They pay off if you keep the loan long enough (see the example in Section 12).
- ARM vs. fixed: Consider an ARM only if you are likely to sell or refinance before it resets, and check the caps on how much it can rise.
- FHA/VA: Lower rates and smaller down payments, but compare total cost including FHA insurance or the VA funding fee.
- Checklist: check your credit score, get quotes from at least three lenders, calculate total monthly housing cost (loan + taxes + insurance + HOA), and keep six months of savings.
Sellers
- Pricing: Buyers can afford less than a year ago, so price to today's market from day one. Homes that sit lose negotiating power.
- Credits and buydowns: A seller credit that buys down the buyer's rate often lowers their monthly payment more effectively than a price cut.
- Evaluating offers: Look beyond price: pre-approval strength, down payment, appraisal-gap plans, and closing timeline.
Current homeowners
- Refinance break-even: A refinance generally makes sense when the new rate is at least 0.75% to 1.0% below your current rate. For most owners, that is not the case right now.
- HELOC vs. cash-out refinance: If you need cash and have a low rate, a home equity line of credit (HELOC) or second loan may beat replacing your whole mortgage, though HELOC rates can float.
12. Points vs. Rate, and a Refinance Break-Even Example
Example A: buying a point. Assume a $500,000 30-year loan. One point costs 1% of the loan, or $5,000, and we assume it cuts the rate about 0.25%, from 7.48% to 7.23% (real discounts vary by lender). The monthly principal and interest drops from $3,489.23 to $3,404.10, a saving of $85.13. Divide $5,000 by that saving and you get a break-even of about 59 months (roughly 4.9 years). Keep the loan longer and you come out ahead; sell or refinance sooner and you lose. If you expect to refinance soon, skip points.
Example B: refinancing. Suppose an owner took a loan near 8.0% in late 2023 and still owes $400,000 (simplified as a fresh 30-year term). Refinancing to 7.48% lowers principal and interest from $2,935.06 to $2,791.38, saving $143.68 a month. If closing costs are $6,000, break-even is $6,000 divided by 143.68, or about 42 months (roughly 3.5 years). At today's levels only owners with rates near 8% benefit. Anyone holding a 3% to 5% loan should not refinance. Rolling closing costs into the loan stretches the break-even even longer.
13. Compared to a Year Ago
A year ago the MND 30-year fixed was about 6.38%. Today it is 7.48%, which is 1.10% higher. Freddie Mac shows about 6.34% a year ago against 7.40% now, a gap of about 1.06%. In dollars, a $500,000 loan costs $3,121 a month at the old rate and $3,489 now, about $368 more a month or $4,419 a year. A $300,000 loan costs about $221 more a month, or $2,651 a year.
Purchasing power shows the change even more clearly. A buyer who can pay $3,000 a month in principal and interest could borrow about $480,600 at last year's 6.38%, but only about $429,900 at 7.48%. That is roughly $50,700 (10.5%) less home for the same payment, which means a bigger down payment or a smaller house.
14. Monthly Payment by Loan Amount (Principal and Interest, 30-Year Fixed)
| Loan amount | Today MND 7.48% | A year ago 6.38% | Freddie Mac 7.40% | MBA 7.49% | Increase vs. year ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200,000 | $1,395.69 | $1,248.39 | $1,384.76 | $1,397.06 | $147.30 |
| $300,000 | $2,093.54 | $1,872.59 | $2,077.14 | $2,095.59 | $220.95 |
| $400,000 | $2,791.38 | $2,496.79 | $2,769.52 | $2,794.12 | $294.59 |
| $500,000 | $3,489.23 | $3,120.98 | $3,461.90 | $3,492.65 | $368.24 |
| $600,000 | $4,187.07 | $3,745.18 | $4,154.28 | $4,191.18 | $441.89 |
These figures use the standard amortization formula (payment = loan x monthly rate / (1 - (1 + monthly rate)^-360)) and cover principal and interest only. Your actual monthly bill adds property taxes, homeowners insurance, any HOA (homeowners association) dues, and private mortgage insurance (PMI) if you put less than 20% down. In places where property tax runs about 1.1% to 1.3% of home value, taxes and insurance can add several hundred dollars a month on a $500,000 loan. Budget for total monthly housing cost. An escrow account is where your lender collects taxes and insurance each month and pays those bills for you.
15. Mortgage Rates in Historical Context
1980s: To fight runaway inflation, the Fed pushed rates so high that Freddie Mac's 30-year average hit 18.63% in October 1981, the record, and stayed above 10% most of the decade. 1990s: roughly 7% to 9%. 2000s: 6% to 8%, falling to the 5% range after the 2008 financial crisis. 2010s: a long stretch of 3.5% to 5%. Pandemic era: a record low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021. 2022 to now: as inflation surged, the Fed hiked quickly, rates reached the high 7% range in fall 2023, drifted back into the 6% range, and this fall climbed to the mid-7% range again. Seen against the 1980s and 1990s, 7.4% is not extreme. But for anyone used to the 4% to 5% decade before the pandemic, it feels very high.
16. Key Terms to Know
- Fixed rate: the interest rate stays the same for the whole loan.
- ARM (adjustable-rate mortgage): the rate is fixed for a few years, then adjusts with market rates.
- Points: fees equal to 1% of the loan each, paid up front to lower your rate.
- APR: the yearly cost of a loan including interest and fees.
- Rate lock: a promise to hold your rate for a set number of days.
- Float-down: an option to take a lower rate if market rates fall after you lock.
- MBS (mortgage-backed security): a bundle of home loans sold to investors.
- Down payment: the part of the price you pay from your own money.
- PMI: insurance that protects the lender when you put less than 20% down.
- Escrow: an account that holds money for property taxes and insurance.
- DTI (debt-to-income ratio): monthly debt payments divided by monthly income.
- LTV (loan-to-value): loan amount divided by home value; 80% LTV means 20% down.
- Pre-qualification vs. pre-approval: pre-qualification is a rough estimate from what you tell a lender; pre-approval is based on checked documents and credit and carries more weight with sellers.
- Buydown: money paid (often by a seller or builder) to lower the rate for the first years or for the life of the loan.
- Closing costs: lender, title, appraisal, and other fees, typically 2% to 5% of the price.
17. Frequently Asked Questions
Q1. Should I buy now or wait?
Nobody can time rates reliably. If rates fall, more buyers return and prices can rise, and if they rise, your buying power shrinks. Focus on whether the payment fits your budget and how long you will stay, and remember refinancing may be an option later.
Q2. Are points worth it?
They pay off when you keep the loan longer than the break-even point. In the example above, that was about 59 months (4.9 years).
Q3. Does a Fed rate hike raise mortgage rates?
Not directly. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield more closely than the Fed's overnight rate, and markets often move before the Fed does.
Q4. When does refinancing make sense?
When the new rate is meaningfully lower (often 0.75% to 1.0%) and you will stay past the break-even. Today that mostly applies to owners with rates near 8%.
Q5. How much does my credit score matter?
A lot. The gap between a 760+ score and a score under 700 can be 0.5% or more on the rate at some lenders. Pay down card balances and avoid late payments months before applying.
18. Bottom Line
19. Sources
- Mortgage News Daily: daily rate index and history (Oct. 9, 2026)
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, Oct. 8, 2026 (via MND)
- Mortgage Bankers Association weekly applications survey, released Oct. 7, 2026 (via Redbook Lumber Data and Trading Economics)
- Federal Reserve FOMC statement, Sept. 16, 2026; FedRateCalc FOMC and economic calendars
- Bankrate (Oct. 7, 2026); The Mortgage Reports (Oct. 12, 2026); WRE News (Sept. 14, 2026); NAHB (September HMI)
- Forecasts: Fannie Mae ESR, MBA, Ralph DiBugnara (Home Qualified), James Sahnger (C2 Financial)
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